W.10 | Eruption forecasts and warnings at long-quiescent volcanoes


Anna Maria Zaccaria | University of Naples, Italy
Gabriella Gribaudi | University of Naples, Italy
Christopher Kilburn | University College London, UK • c.kilburn@ucl.ac.uk
Sabina Michnowicz | University College London, UK
Karen Holmberg | New York University, USA
Gala Avvisati | INGV-Osservatorio Vesuviano •  gala.avvisati@ingv.it

Date: September 8
Duration: 1 day
Number of participants: 10- 30

The global threat from volcanic eruption is chronically under-estimated because most major eruptions occur from volcanoes that have been quiescent for 100 years or more. The repose intervals are long enough for the memory of previous eruptions to have faded among monitoring scientists and vulnerable communities. For example, 70% of Europe’s active volcanoes have not erupted during the professional lifetimes of current monitoring scientists. As a result, eruption forecasts during renewed unrest are commonly uncertain and misunderstood The loss of experience strongly handicaps the delivery and understanding of forecasts and presents a major challenge to effective emergency response.
This workshop will be presented by an interdisciplinary team with expertise in physical and social science to discuss responses to unrest at volcanoes after long repose. It will be structured around, but not restricted to, Campi Flegrei, which has a population of more than 360,000 people between Naples and the Tyrrhenian coast. After four centuries of repose, the volcano has been in unrest since 1950 and triggered two major, non-eruptive emergencies since 1969. It provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the flow of experience and understanding of volcanic emergencies across three generations and, from the results, to identify strategies for optimising the delivery of eruption forecasts not only at Campi Flegrei, but also at long-quiescent volcanoes worldwide. We welcome the participation especially of early-career researchers, whether scientists or non-scientists, for a day of lively and thought-provoking discussion.

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